Will Rednote Get Banned In The Us?

19 hours ago

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I’m not nan first to connection nan irony of TikTok users flooding RedNote this week. The TikTok divest-or-ban norm was expected to thrust Americans distant from a foreign-owned societal web that was taxable to powerfulness aliases accusation harvesting by nan Chinese government. Instead, it pushed them onto a different foreign-owned societal web that poses nan nonstop aforesaid hypothetical risks — and that mightiness beryllium taxable to nan nonstop aforesaid benignant of ban.

TikTok faces a prohibition nether nan Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act, which passed pinch overwhelming bipartisan support and was signed past twelvemonth by President Joe Biden (who is reportedly experiencing immoderate buyer’s remorse right now). While it mentions TikTok and its genitor company, ByteDance, by name, it could usage to immoderate institution that meets nan pursuing criteria:

It operates a website aliases app pinch overmuch than 1 cardinal monthly users and lets those users make accounts to create and banal content.
It isn’t a activity that chiefly lets users “post merchandise reviews, business reviews, aliases recreation accusation and reviews.”
It’s controlled by a overseas adversary, a meaning that covers North Korea, China, Russia, and Iran. “Control” tin mean nan institution is headquartered there, a resident of that authorities holds astatine slightest a 20 percent liking successful it, aliases it’s different “subject to nan guidance aliases control” of personification surviving there.

RedNote reportedly had overmuch than 300 cardinal monthly progressive users arsenic of 2023, affirmative a reported 3 cardinal overmuch US users who precocious moved over. It’s headquartered successful Shanghai, China. It offers a activity very akin to TikTok.

If a institution meets nan ineligible criteria, nan subordinate passes to nan president, who tin find whether to initiate a divest-or-ban procedure. This requires a bid of steps:

The president must publically propose a determination that nan company’s app presents a “significant threat” to US nationalist security.
The president must rumor a nationalist study to Congress, laying retired nan “specific nationalist accusation liking progressive and containing a classified annex,” affirmative a mentation of what assets nan genitor institution would petition to divest. (Congress doesn’t petition to o.k. this — it conscionable has to personification it.)
The president makes an charismatic determination astatine slightest 30 days aft notifying Congress, and nan institution has 270 days to make a divestiture that satisfies nan president’s requirements. Within nan first 90 days, nan app’s genitor institution tin business nan norm successful nan DC Circuit Court of Appeals, for illustration TikTok did.
If it fails to get a tribunal to extremity it, nan institution would petition to make a “qualified divestiture” aliases look a prohibition successful nan US. The 270-day timepiece keeps ticking unless a tribunal pauses it, and nan president tin only widen nan deadline up to different 90 days.
The app tin debar a prohibition if it’s divested from nan overseas adversary’s control. The president must determine, pinch nan thief of an “interagency process,” that nan discarded would consequence successful nan app nary longer being controlled by a overseas adversary and that it prevents immoderate benignant of early operational relationship, for illustration a data-sharing agreement.
If this doesn’t happen, nan norm forces app shop operators and nett hosting services to cease supporting nan app, resulting successful its effective shutdown successful nan US.

The norm mentions TikTok by punishment arsenic a nationalist accusation threat, truthful that level is fundamentally cooked — the divest-or-ban deadline was group successful mobility erstwhile nan norm was signed, bypassing overmuch of nan process above. The norm says immoderate subsidiary of ByteDance is too covered by nan law, truthful while nan institution and US authorities personification not yet commented connected apps for illustration its societal web Lemon8, they’ll apt look scrutiny, too. But nan president has importantly overmuch leeway successful deciding nan destiny of different apps.

Where does RedNote stand, then?

RedNote, arsenic acold arsenic publically disposable accusation indicates, could beryllium forced to divest aliases look a prohibition nether nan Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act. A US charismatic has confirmed that, saying it “appears to beryllium nan benignant of app that nan statute would usage to.”

But pragmatically, this is wherever we exit nan realm of argumentation and participate nan world of politics. The mobility isn’t really really RedNote operates; it’s whether RedNote makes President-elect Donald Trump aliases nan Silicon Valley oligarchy mad.

TikTok does airs imaginable accusation risks, but nan portion to prohibition it was astir a batch overmuch than that. Meta was down a nationalist run calling for scrutiny of TikTok — 1 of its main competitors — and its ties to China. Members of Congress complained that TikTok was serving excessively overmuch pro-Palestinian content; there’s nary known grounds China was down this alleged imbalance, truthful presenting it arsenic a nationalist accusation threat looks reasonably suspect. Now, conversely, Trump is looking for ways to prevention TikTok because he thinks it helped his predetermination campaign.

Based connected each of this, let’s extrapolate a measurement for RedNote. Right now, its American personification guidelines appears comparatively minuscule; it’s not clear really galore US users it had earlier nan past week, but Reuters reports that it gained astir 3 cardinal US users successful 1 clip this week, compared to astir 170 cardinal monthly US TikTok users arsenic of past year. The risks Congress saw successful TikTok — mass accusation harvesting, covert propaganda — appear to effect a acold smaller number of people. The risks that whitethorn really find its destiny are a mini overmuch complicated.

Will RedNote support a momentum that threatens nan egos aliases businesses of MAGA-approved billionaires for illustration Mark Zuckerberg and Elon Musk? Will it nutrient governmental activism that antagonizes Trump (or a early president)? Will expanding US hostility toward China’s authorities manifest successful a wide crackdown connected Chinese apps? All these things, while difficult to predict, wouldn’t bode well.

For now, though, personification nosy learning Mandarin.